Predictions for the coming year’s election:
Let me start by saying, I have concerns with Donald Trump: his temperament, demeanor, stature,ect… I do believe though that sometimes to really effectively make change you have to really shake things up and go outside your comfort zone. As a nation we have spoken out through election cycles to voice our happiness/unhappiness with the government and our elected representatives. We elect or re-elect candidates over and over with the same results: politics as usual. Money controls the candidates, policies are made by those same controllers by proxy of their selected politician.
This nation needs someone outside of the established parties and ways of doing things in Washington. Donald Trump may be the last real chance to get our country back on a positive track; because something has got to change. Ben Carson is wonderful, but has been overlooked too long by most republicans. However, Carson should absolutely be on the ticket as Vice President.
Most people agree that the election system is rigged. In a lot of ways the system has been set up to work exactly as the powers that be within each main political parties has determined. However, the people’s popular votes can tip the balance to the people’s choice. Only a truly massive turnout at the polls will determine our next President to keep the establishment from running things the usual way. Landslide victories are the only way to have ‘We the People’ heard. Everyone that can vote, needs to vote.
Republicans will seek a brokered convention if they cannot break Donald Trump before the convention date. A brokered convention means that the national Republican Party cannot agree on a nominee for president due to the mathematical fluidity of delegate distribution. Those that had won delegates before dropping out of the race can influence/decide how to distribute those delegates to the remaining candidates. More than one candidate can mathematically get the required delegates to win nomination if they can collect the delegates back in play after a candidate leaves the race. If a brokered convention is called, essentially everything is a restart. All the previously pledged delegates may change their allegiance/vote for the candidate of their choice with no regard for the previous popular vote. Delegates are legally required to vote for their appointed candidate once. If a second or brokered vote is called; they may then choose a different candidate to support. Once the delegates begin shifting the delegate count; the leaders of the RNC will go into a closed meeting and literally mediate an agreement between that group of people and THEY choose the nominee for the Republican Party- regardless of popular vote.
The National Democratic Party has a different system for assigning and winning delegates. A set number of delegates are pre-determined for each state; however another group of delegates (Super Delegates) are also in play within each state. Super Delegates are nominated with the district/regional democratic party of each state and those delegates are pledged as Super Delegates for the national convention; regardless of the primaries and popular vote. Super Delegates make it possible for a nominee to win enough delegates for the nomination without winning every primary or the popular vote. The Democratic establishment influences these delegates; and a majority will pledge their vote to a candidate before primaries occur.
Both established political parties have created ‘back doors’ to override the will of the people in elections. Someone can win the popular vote, but lose the nomination, because of their party’s back door policies.
In an uncontested nomination; once a particular nominee gains the majority of the delegates or reaches the magic number of required delegates; others drop out of the race and rally behind the lead nominee and typically a running mate is chosen by nominee. The two elected nominees (one from each party) will then face off against the opposing party to vie for the votes of the nation in the national election in November 2016.
Because both political parties have insurances built into their conventions; the same exists for the national elections. The Electoral College is the determining factor in electing a new President; not the popular vote. Much like super delegates, electors may vote according to their choice, not based on the popular vote. Traditionally the Electoral College aligns with the popular vote; but not always. Not every state legally requires their Electoral College representative to vote according to the popular vote of their state. This makes is possible for a candidate to win the popular vote, but lose the Electoral College. This situation occurred a few times in the last few decades. Typically, the ‘losing’ candidate will concede and the race ends with a newly elected President. However, a candidate may opt to wait for the entire popular vote count or protest the electoral vote; much like in Florida between Bush and Gore.
Based on my understanding of the election process, research and input of the talking heads on ‘news’ shows, and my own beliefs about the direction of the country I am making my best educated guesses as to how the upcoming election cycle will end.
The likelihood of a scenario occurring is ranked by their number. The #1 scenario is more likely than the #2 scenario and so on leading up to the national election. After the nominees are determined by each political party, the likelihood of scenarios reverses. The higher the number of the scenario, the more likely of the scenario occurring. #3 is more likely than #1.
Republican establishment will NOT let Donald Trump take the nomination at the convention. A brokered convention will be called for and the ‘establishment’ will put forth their nominee of choice. IF Rubio is still in the race, they will nominate Rubio. I believe the establishment will continue to pour money into Rubio’s campaign and their media (Fox News) will push him forward, while destroying Trump and others. Republicans lose the national Presidential election.
Republican establishment, unable to keep Rubio in the race, will continue to turn against Trump and will either back Kasick or Cruz at a brokered convention. Both candidates are establishment candidates and will play ball with the powers in charge of the RNC. Republicans lose national Presidential election.
Trump continues to dominate the popular votes/delegates on ‘Super Tuesday’ Cruz and Rubio will maintain in the race if they each win their home states of Texas and Florida. He, who loses in his home state, will drop out of the race shortly after Super Tuesday. If Cruz and Rubio remain in the race, Carson will drop out (hopeful of being vetted for vice president of the nominee). If Kasick is close in delegate count to either Cruz and/or Rubio; he will remain in the race- making it easier for establishment to demand a brokered convention. At brokered convention, if Cruz and Rubio both still in race- one will be presidential nominee and other will take a deal for cabinet position (i.e. Clinton with Obama in 08). Carson or Kasick will be V.P. Trump is out after brokered convention.
Trump continues to dominate and sweeps on Super Tuesday. Finally, Cruz and/or Rubio drop out of race; mathematically unable to win nomination. Carson drops out. Kasick drops out. Trump gets nomination because of overwhelming lead in popular vote/delegates; brokered convention not viable ‘sell’ to America. IF an assassination attempt in not made/fails against Trump; he takes the nomination and in deals with RNC for picks in cabinet and running mate- Trump gets backing of RNC and unites party behind Trump. Trump wins presidential election.
If Hillary Clinton is physically and legally able to receive the nomination she will be nominated by the Democratic Party as their Presidential nominee. If her health continues to decline or become an unavoidable and uncontrollable topic; she will be forced to drop out of the race. If the DNC is unable to control the legal problems associated with her tenure as Secretary of State; she will have to drop out of the race. However, if she stays in until the convention; she will receive the nomination; regardless of popular vote and because of her already loyal Super Delegates.
If Hillary Clinton is unable to remain in the race and drops out; Bernie Sanders will be challenged by Joe Biden who will enter the race just before Hillary drops out. The DNC cannot have an openly Socialist candidate represent their entire party. A politics as usual candidate will be pushed into the race to go against Sanders. Sanders does not get nomination, and makes a deal with DNC to support their candidate of choice.
In the absence of another more potable candidate, the DNC will nominate Sanders after deals and concessions are made for his campaign once he becomes the party’s nominee. Open socialism will be put on back burner of his platform and he will become more conformed to the DNC establishment. Hillary could be offered a Vice Presidency if she is able to perform the job. (Dick Cheney scenario- questionable, but accepted choice)
National Presidential Election
Voting laws in each individual state will greatly affect the national election. The intentional influx of immigrants and refugees into states that do not require a valid/legal form of identification to vote will tip the votes heavily Democratic in the national election. Lower voter turn-out among Republicans in the last few presidential elections could also alter the results if the trend continues in November 2016.
Rubio or Cruz gets the nomination by brokered convention. Trump threatens and probably does sue the RNC. The legal fuss leading up to November election will be marred by lawsuit; Democrats play mess to their advantage and win the election easily with a fractured Republican party.
Those loyal to Trump will be embittered against RNC and will not vote, adding to the odds of victory for the Democrats. IF Hillary is the democratic nominee; within 6 months of becoming President, she will place Bill at United Nations and he will be nominated as Secretary General (thanks to all their political efforts and connections with the Clinton Foundation) The Clintons literally become the most powerful couple in the world.
Cruz or Rubio against Bernie Sanders: Sanders wins. Either republican establishment candidate against Democrats; the Democrat wins the election due to lack of voter turnout by Republicans and Independents.
Donald Trump against ANY democrat and Trump will win the Presidency by popular vote; but loses when electoral college will give the victory to Democratic candidate if the national popular vote is close; not a landslide by Trump.
Donald Trump wins the popular vote by a landslide and Electoral College gives the win to Trump. Establishment political parties cry.
*This scenario seems the most likely to occur, in the absence of continued landslide victories by Donald Trump in the Republican primaries leading up the convention.
Additionally, using the Oregon standoff as a beta test to determine the true determination and tenacity of the patriot movement, the establishment would easily let their chosen electorates determine the Presidency in the Electoral College; despite the popular vote. The government effectively silenced the Patriot Movement in Oregon and then went back and grabbed up others within the movement from previous run-ins with Feds. After the intentional shooting death of LaVoy by FBI, and no true reaction from patriots, three percenters or general public; the threat of rebellion or revolution against the government and establishment ceased to be a concern. Once the voices of the voters is blatantly ignored, there will be postings, saber rattling, murmurings and grumblings but patriots, conservatives and tea partiers will take it up the kazoo and move on to the next hot issue. Politics as usual will continue in Washington.